ENS is the best risk/reward trade I’ve found in years:
- On Aug 25, 2021, ENS hit 200k registered names
- 255 days later, 1.1m registered names - May 11, 2016, ETH hit 200k unique address - 255 days … 1.0m unique address
- ETH paved the way, and ENS can build on - ETH Jan 2017 vibes
ETH in 2017/18
- Using our timeline, on Jan 21, 2017, was ~$11, ETH/BTC was 0.0115
- 1 year later there were 24m unique wallets, the price was ~$1000, ETH/BTC 0.091
- Explosion of ERC20 tokens, in 1 year 2500 transfers a day to 210k transfers per day
- NFTs, ICO mania
ENS in 2022/23 p1
- Could @ensdomains see a 24x in registered domains in next year? - Very Possible - NFTs changed the game in crypto. Coins are not social. NFTs are social. Wallets used to be secret, now we’re public via pseudonyms
- @10kClubOfficial & DAOs → social
ENS in 2022/23 p2
- Twitter links to wallets already, ENS connection is not a stretch
- Coinbase NFT … connect 60m people to social NFT buying … ENS connection seems likely - ENS upgrade, Subdomain Wrapper ELI5, allows subdomain buys/sells, can’t be deleted by ENS owner
ENS New Uses
- These are speculative ideas … but possible from discussions I’ve had with various devs
- Use subdomains to facilitate subscription services Jane.daily.nftreport.eth Sam.weekly.nftreport.eth - Subdomains to fractionalize NFTs
- Temp Subdomain as lease
Feasibility of ENS Growth
- To create 23m new wallets next 1 yr, how much gas?
- @ avg of 0.015 ETH, 345k ETH
- This is a similar level to how much OpenSea consumes - Well within a manageable level for ETH
- 23m registrations with gas + ENS fees ~$1.2b
- seems doable
How to Play? p1
- If risk-averse, just buy ETH … it all benefits ETH
- Now for the degens: - ENS coin … it’s a governance token. it will likely go up, but this is not how I plan to play it
- ENS names … now the Q is which ones
How to Play? p2
- I believe the market will price the most liquid ENS assets the highest
- TLDR: digits will be the most liquid, most valuable
- 3ds will be used to make large allocations & launch businesses
- 4ds DAOs/flex, 5ds flex
Potential Prices (Not Financial Advice) p1
- Today ENS coins + names ~$0.5b - Crypto/risk in a bear market
- If it’s similar path to 2017 on ETH, ENS coin + name ~ $50b … with I think most sitting in the names (property)
- but it’s a bear market so call it $20b
Potential Prices (Not Financial Advice) p2
- Assume 1/2 of $20b sits in digits (other 1/2, coin, letters)
- $10b of market cap - Avg price @ $3k eth
- 3d = 830 ETH, 4d = 83 ETH, 5d = 8.3 ETH, 6d = 0.83 ETH - In world of 24m ENS names, 5d is scarce, let alone 3d & 4d
By 008