ENS is the Best Risk/Reward Trade I’ve Found in Years

ENS is the best risk/reward trade I’ve found in years:

  • On Aug 25, 2021, ENS hit 200k registered names
  • 255 days later, 1.1m registered names - May 11, 2016, ETH hit 200k unique address - 255 days … 1.0m unique address
  • ETH paved the way, and ENS can build on - ETH Jan 2017 vibes

ETH in 2017/18

  • Using our timeline, on Jan 21, 2017, was ~$11, ETH/BTC was 0.0115
  • 1 year later there were 24m unique wallets, the price was ~$1000, ETH/BTC 0.091
  • Explosion of ERC20 tokens, in 1 year 2500 transfers a day to 210k transfers per day
  • NFTs, ICO mania

ENS in 2022/23 p1

  • Could @ensdomains see a 24x in registered domains in next year? - Very Possible - NFTs changed the game in crypto. Coins are not social. NFTs are social. Wallets used to be secret, now we’re public via pseudonyms
  • @10kClubOfficial & DAOs → social

ENS in 2022/23 p2

  • Twitter links to wallets already, ENS connection is not a stretch
  • Coinbase NFT … connect 60m people to social NFT buying … ENS connection seems likely - ENS upgrade, Subdomain Wrapper ELI5, allows subdomain buys/sells, can’t be deleted by ENS owner

ENS New Uses

  • These are speculative ideas … but possible from discussions I’ve had with various devs
  • Use subdomains to facilitate subscription services Jane.daily.nftreport.eth Sam.weekly.nftreport.eth - Subdomains to fractionalize NFTs
  • Temp Subdomain as lease

Feasibility of ENS Growth

  • To create 23m new wallets next 1 yr, how much gas?
  • @ avg of 0.015 ETH, 345k ETH
  • This is a similar level to how much OpenSea consumes - Well within a manageable level for ETH
  • 23m registrations with gas + ENS fees ~$1.2b
  • seems doable

How to Play? p1

  • If risk-averse, just buy ETH … it all benefits ETH
  • Now for the degens: - ENS coin … it’s a governance token. it will likely go up, but this is not how I plan to play it
  • ENS names … now the Q is which ones

How to Play? p2

  • I believe the market will price the most liquid ENS assets the highest
  • TLDR: digits will be the most liquid, most valuable
  • 3ds will be used to make large allocations & launch businesses
  • 4ds DAOs/flex, 5ds flex

Potential Prices (Not Financial Advice) p1

  • Today ENS coins + names ~$0.5b - Crypto/risk in a bear market
  • If it’s similar path to 2017 on ETH, ENS coin + name ~ $50b … with I think most sitting in the names (property)
  • but it’s a bear market so call it $20b

Potential Prices (Not Financial Advice) p2

  • Assume 1/2 of $20b sits in digits (other 1/2, coin, letters)
  • $10b of market cap - Avg price @ $3k eth
  • 3d = 830 ETH, 4d = 83 ETH, 5d = 8.3 ETH, 6d = 0.83 ETH - In world of 24m ENS names, 5d is scarce, let alone 3d & 4d

By 008