ENS Super Cycle 2022-2024

ENS Super Cycle 2022-2024
To start a super cycle you need the right initial conditions for ENS and they are:

  • Low ETH gas fees
  • Consumers comfortable with on-chain transactions
  • Crypto being social, NFTs made us want to flex, ENS makes us searchable

Why ETH Gas Fees Matter

  • Since 100k ENS registrations in Jan 2021, there’s been a strong relationship between ETH fees & # of ENS registrations
  • Registrations explode higher when fees are < $6 - Degens - here’s the kicker: this chart doesn’t include digit minting mania!

Will ETH Gas Fees Stay Low?

  • Macro! & rising rates impact both sides of fees
  • With global risk-off, the price will be under pressure
  • Rising rates = lower demand for de-fi, less Uniswap transactions - Recession = less OS trades - Low gas * low ETH = low USD fees

100,000 ft view: Gas Fees & ENS

  • Gas fee ENS registration now = 0.008
  • Gas fee ENS when de-fi or OS booming = 0.03+ estimated 23m new ENS in next 1 yr
  • 23m * .008 = 184k ETH @ $2.5k = $460m - 23m * .03 = 690k ETH @ $3.5k = $2,415m
  • 80% reduction in gas fees

2021 - Year of the Degen

  • 2021 defi 10x’d+, OS volume 600x
  • We learned how to swap, stake, bridge, buy/sell/transfer NFTs
  • Swapped Coinbase for liquidity pools, some even created magic internet money w/ LPs as collateral
  • Bottom line, we know how to use the chain

NFTs make Crypto Social

  • Prior to NFTs, most were 42 characters on etherscan, a coin is a coin
  • But as Beeples boomed, punks pumped, apes ascended, we started to flex
  • Twitter pfps, but even on chain … you didn’t need a check mark on OS, just an ENS name

ENS makes us Searchable

  • It’s 2022 - we aspire to be tastemakers
  • They heard you talk in a Twitter space, you were a brown ape with an orange background, damn there are too many
  • or you were 333.eth, 333.eth search OS, wow this guy knows his art blocks!

Other Factors

  • 30 million monthly MetaMask active users, of which only ~1.3% have an ENS address
  • Coinbase likely will integrate ENS
  • Web3 gaming tends to use ENS name as user name
  • Having a cool ENS is becoming a flex, when in doubt bet on vanity

Why 2022-2024?

  • In commodities or tech, supercycles last 5-7-10 years, but in crypto, everything happens faster
  • I think we move from ~1.2m ENS names today to potentially 100m+ by EOY 2024
  • Stars have aligned
  • In 2024, let’s re-evaluate and say wen 1 billion

By 008

I think what will accelerate growth of ENS is mobile! There are 7 billion smart phones in the world today!