ENS Super Cycle 2022-2024
To start a super cycle you need the right initial conditions for ENS and they are:
- Low ETH gas fees
- Consumers comfortable with on-chain transactions
- Crypto being social, NFTs made us want to flex, ENS makes us searchable
Why ETH Gas Fees Matter
- Since 100k ENS registrations in Jan 2021, there’s been a strong relationship between ETH fees & # of ENS registrations
- Registrations explode higher when fees are < $6 - Degens - here’s the kicker: this chart doesn’t include digit minting mania!
Will ETH Gas Fees Stay Low?
- Macro! & rising rates impact both sides of fees
- With global risk-off, the price will be under pressure
- Rising rates = lower demand for de-fi, less Uniswap transactions - Recession = less OS trades - Low gas * low ETH = low USD fees
100,000 ft view: Gas Fees & ENS
- Gas fee ENS registration now = 0.008
- Gas fee ENS when de-fi or OS booming = 0.03+ estimated 23m new ENS in next 1 yr
- 23m * .008 = 184k ETH @ $2.5k = $460m - 23m * .03 = 690k ETH @ $3.5k = $2,415m
- 80% reduction in gas fees
2021 - Year of the Degen
- 2021 defi 10x’d+, OS volume 600x
- We learned how to swap, stake, bridge, buy/sell/transfer NFTs
- Swapped Coinbase for liquidity pools, some even created magic internet money w/ LPs as collateral
- Bottom line, we know how to use the chain
NFTs make Crypto Social
- Prior to NFTs, most were 42 characters on etherscan, a coin is a coin
- But as Beeples boomed, punks pumped, apes ascended, we started to flex
- Twitter pfps, but even on chain … you didn’t need a check mark on OS, just an ENS name
ENS makes us Searchable
- It’s 2022 - we aspire to be tastemakers
- They heard you talk in a Twitter space, you were a brown ape with an orange background, damn there are too many
- or you were 333.eth, 333.eth search OS, wow this guy knows his art blocks!
Other Factors
- 30 million monthly MetaMask active users, of which only ~1.3% have an ENS address
- Coinbase likely will integrate ENS
- Web3 gaming tends to use ENS name as user name
- Having a cool ENS is becoming a flex, when in doubt bet on vanity
Why 2022-2024?
- In commodities or tech, supercycles last 5-7-10 years, but in crypto, everything happens faster
- I think we move from ~1.2m ENS names today to potentially 100m+ by EOY 2024
- Stars have aligned
- In 2024, let’s re-evaluate and say wen 1 billion
By 008