Why disruption creates 10x or more value than preceding industries and how the convergence of #Web3 technologies will create incredibly prosperous outcomes.
Disruption happens when technologies converge to create new possibilities for users. I.e; the smartphone over the cell phone; it was not simply a better cell phone but a convergence of voice, video, web and computing which enabled new user behaviours.
A total phase change.
Nobody at the point could have predicted that smartphones would have enabled instant chat, video streaming, geo location, the proliferation of mobile social networking and the extent of new behaviors and services which we now take for granted.
The social shifts have been profound and created tremendous amounts of economic output.
As an example; Apple is a multi trillion dollar business built on this phase change from the previous technological regime based on cell phone technology.
Conversely, why couldn’t incumbent giants of the preceding regime capture the opportunity in front of them?
Firstly, they were structured to continue to monopolise the current opportunity.
Secondly, they were blinded by siloed thinking and their “expert” titles.
Consider that AT&T in the 1980s had forecasted cell phones would reach a total addressable market of 900,000 units max!
They UNDERESTIMATED the TAM by a massive margin.
This led AT&T to under invest in the opportunity, thus allowing startups to steal it from them.
They could not see that cellphone technology was the next big killer use case for mass consumer technology and instead narrowly focused their attention on the corporate market.
Similarly, most experts and incumbent companies are blind to the opportunity in front of them right now.
Web3 technologies are a convergence of generational platforms; namely decentralized services, web3 ID, NFT tech, AR/VR, AI and others.
Hence, it is likely that new champions will arise as current incumbents are also under investing into this disruptive phase change, as did AT&T in the example given above.
We are already seeing behavioral shifts which are enabled by the convergence of web3 technologies; the advent of the #metaverse. Witness the growth in usage of ENS, NFTs and VR/AR worlds for immersive experiences as organically created by web3 natives.
One key difference from before, is in web2 our experiences were being sold as the product.
However, in web 3, we as the users OWN the product.
This is why I believe ENS and web3 ID will become increasingly more important as this disruptive revolution grows.
Our web3 IDs will shift power from centralized entities to ourselves and enable us to capture value created from this new technological convergence.
Now, what the trajectory of disruption is telling us is more value creation/ destruction is happening than ever before and at an ever increasing rate.
Each disruption has had steeper S curves than preceding ones.
This is why current “experts” will mostly be wrong about the future.
They largely do not see the convergences and arising NEW services which will serve NEW users for NEW needs.
Even web3 natives resort to using web2 comparable and .com valuations; but the truth is that value will accrue in surprising ways and massively to the upside of our wildest predictions.
In this current disruptive transition, far more value will be created than destroyed.
And in keeping with the web3 ethos of owning our own data; I am confident that we are in prime position to capture MASSIVE future value with ENS.
References: Tony Seba on disruptive technologies